The global air freight market had a strong 2024, growing by 11.3%, thanks to high demand from e-commerce and disruptions in ocean freight. While 2025 is expected to see another 5.8% growth, the industry faces challenges, including geopolitical tensions, inflation, and shifting trade policies.
New U.S tariffs
One of the biggest uncertainties facing the air freight market in 2025 is the potential imposition of new U.S. tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico. If these tariffs are enacted, they could trigger short-term spikes in demand for air cargo, as businesses rush to move goods before the new duties take effect. A similar pattern was observed during the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade war when shippers accelerated imports to avoid higher costs. However, the long-term impact could be more disruptive. Higher tariffs would increase supply chain costs, potentially reducing consumer demand and shifting trade patterns. Businesses looking to minimize risk and avoid hefty duties may further diversify their sourcing strategies, turning to Southeast Asia. Vietnam, in particular, has already seen significant export growth, especially in electronics and apparel, as companies seek alternatives to China.
E-commerce regulations
Adding to the uncertainty, new e-commerce regulations in the U.S. could also reshape global air cargo flows. In early 2025, the U.S. government suspended and then quickly reinstated de minimis eligibility for Chinese e-commerce shipments, which allow low-value imports to enter the country duty-free. However, there are growing expectations that de minimis rules will soon be permanently canceled for Chinese imports. This would have a major impact on cross-border e-commerce, as Chinese sellers would face higher costs, longer delivery times, and increased customs scrutiny. Air cargo demand from China to the U.S., which has remained elevated since late 2023 due to booming online shopping, could decline sharply if these regulatory changes are enforced. Some e-commerce companies are already canceling freighter flights, anticipating lower demand in the months ahead.
Update on freight rates
Meanwhile, freight rates are showing mixed trends across different trade lanes. Rates on the China-to-North America route have declined by 7%, falling below $5.00/kg for the first time since August 2024. This suggests a cooling in demand following the Lunar New Year, combined with uncertainty over future tariffs and trade policies. Similarly, China-to-Europe rates fell 13%, reflecting weaker post-holiday shipment volumes.
Given the uncertainty surrounding global trade and logistics, airlines are taking a cautious approach to capacity planning. The number of transpacific freighter flights has dropped by 15% since the Lunar New Year, reflecting a shift in market conditions. Airlines are closely monitoring trade policies and market trends, ensuring they can adjust capacity to match demand, particularly in key sectors such as e-commerce. With geopolitical risks, shifting trade routes, and changing regulations creating a highly volatile market, carriers must remain flexible in their logistics strategies to maintain profitability in 2025.
Key Trends
- The air cargo market is expected to grow 5.8% in 2025, driven by e-commerce and supply chain shifts.
- Potential new U.S. tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could cause short-term demand spikes but lead to long-term trade shifts.
- Stricter U.S. rules on Chinese e-commerce imports (de minimis changes) could reduce volumes and increase costs for air cargo shipments.
Main Reasons for Bottlenecks
- Uncertainty around U.S. tariffs is disrupting global logistics and air cargo flows.
- Tariffs and e-commerce regulations may increase the demand for air cargo in other regions.
- While Red Sea tensions led to a surge in air cargo demand, any improvement in ocean shipping could shift volumes back to sea freight.
- After the Lunar New Year, transpacific freighter flights dropped 15%, affecting supply and leading to rate fluctuations.
Impact on Freight Rates
- China-North America: Rates fell 7% to $4.92/kg, dropping below $5.00/kg for the first time since August 2024.
- China-North Europe: Prices declined 13% to $3.14/kg, reflecting reduced demand after the Lunar New Year.
- North Europe-North America: Rates remained stable, down only 1% at $2.35/kg.
- Freight rates are expected to remain volatile, influenced by trade policy changes, demand shifts, and economic uncertainty.
Outlook
- If U.S. tariffs on China are imposed, air cargo demand could spike temporarily before stabilizing.
- Southeast Asia and India are emerging as key alternatives to China, sustaining demand for air freight services.
- Airlines remain cautious, adjusting capacity based on trade and e-commerce trends.
- Shippers should stay flexible, monitoring tariffs, capacity shifts, and alternative routes.
Customer advice
Considering the ever-changing market conditions and forces, please:
- Think ahead and book well in advance. Try to plan for 6 months ++.
- Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
- Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.
However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.
