The air freight industry faced continued volatility in March as geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes, and shifting global trade patterns drove market uncertainty. Key developments included new U.S. tariffs affecting trade flows, the ongoing debate over de minimis exemptions for low-value imports, potential disruptions linked to the Red Sea crisis, and operational challenges following the temporary shutdown of London Heathrow Airport. While demand remained resilient in certain corridors, external pressures are reshaping supply chains, leading to fluctuating freight rates and capacity constraints.
U.S. Tariffs impact the global air freight market
Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy continues to impact the global air freight market. The possibility of increased import tariffs from China, Canada, and Mexico has prompted businesses to accelerate shipments ahead of any potential policy changes. This preemptive stockpiling has driven short-term demand spikes for air freight, particularly on Transpacific and Transatlantic routes. However, long-term concerns remain, as higher tariffs could reduce demand, push shippers toward alternative markets such as Vietnam and India, or encourage a modal shift to ocean freight.
Tariffs have also influenced air cargo capacity allocation. Airlines are adjusting their networks to serve emerging trade routes, shifting freighter capacity away from some corridors, such as China to the U.S., with Vietnam, India, and Thailand emerging as key alternatives. Meanwhile, freight forwarders are delaying contract negotiations in anticipation of potential rate fluctuations.
The volatile air freight market is also affecting exports from the U.S., with rising air freight rates to Europe, Asia, and Latin America.
E-commerce regulations - De Minimis Rules
The U.S. government’s decision to temporarily suspend and then reinstate the de minimis exemption for low-value imports has created turbulence in the air freight sector. The exemption, which allows goods valued under $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free, has been a critical factor in the rise of cross-border e-commerce from China.
In February, when the exemption was briefly removed, air freight volumes from China to the U.S. dropped sharply, leading to a 29% month-on-month decline in spot rates from Shanghai to the U.S. Although the exemption was reinstated, its potential long-term removal is prompting major e-commerce platforms to rethink their supply chain models. Companies are now considering bulk shipping methods, establishing U.S.-based warehouses, and shifting some production to other countries.
The uncertainty surrounding de minimis rules is also affecting express carriers which rely heavily on high-volume, low-value e-commerce shipments. If the exemption is permanently removed, air freight demand for small parcels could decline significantly, leading to lower volumes and softer rates on major trade lanes.
The Red Sea ceasefire ends
The ongoing instability in the Red Sea continues to impact global shipping routes, although its influence on air cargo is beginning to diminish. After months of rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, some shipping lines are considering a phased return to the Red Sea following a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. However, with the ceasefire ending on March 18 and uncertainty over further de-escalation, most carriers remain cautious about resuming normal operations.
The prolonged crisis has already led to significant supply chain disruptions, with shippers shifting high-priority cargo from ocean to air freight. However, as companies adapt to longer ocean transit times, the urgency for air transport has somewhat diminished.
If container ships return to the Red Sea in large numbers, global freight rates, for both ocean and air, could experience volatility. A sudden drop in ocean freight rates due to increased capacity could reduce demand for air freight, particularly on Asia-to-Europe trade lanes. Shippers remain on high alert, closely monitoring geopolitical developments before making long-term freight decisions.
Heathrow Airport shutdown disrupts cargo operations
A major power outage at Heathrow Airport in late March severely disrupted air cargo operations, leading to widespread delays. The UK’s largest air freight hub, responsible for handling over 1.6 million metric tons of cargo annually, faced a full-day shutdown, with disruptions that could impact the air cargo supply chain for weeks to come.
The closure impacted supply chains across multiple industries, particularly for time-sensitive shipments bound for North America and Europe. Carriers and freight forwarders have had to reroute shipments, adding costs and further straining an already tight logistics network.
While Heathrow has resumed operations, the incident highlights the vulnerabilities of major air freight hubs and the need for contingency planning in global supply chains. Moving forward, businesses may look to diversify their cargo routes or consider alternative airports to mitigate the risks associated with unexpected infrastructure failures.
Shifting market conditions
As global trade faces ongoing disruptions, air cargo has become a critical safety net for shippers navigating supply chain uncertainty. While ocean freight remains the dominant mode of transport, persistent delays have forced many businesses to shift to air, especially for high-value and time-sensitive goods. However, with ocean reliability improving and Red Sea routes potentially reopening, air freight rates could see significant downward pressure in the coming months.
The volatility of trade policy is another major concern. With new U.S. tariffs under discussion, companies are hesitant to make long-term supply chain decisions. While some businesses are exploring alternative manufacturing hubs in India, Thailand, and Vietnam, shifting production remains a costly and complex process.
Many companies are playing the waiting game, though history has shown that inaction can lead to greater risks. Despite turbulent years, many companies still lack contingency plans. Industry leaders are now prioritizing diversification, stress-testing their supply chains, and investing in flexibility to mitigate future shocks.
Key trends
- Air cargo is increasingly used as a backup for ocean freight delays.
- E-commerce and high-value industries (AI, semiconductors) are driving demand for air freight.
- U.S. tariffs are reshaping global trade routes, impacting air cargo flows.
Main Reasons for Bottlenecks
- Red Sea crisis forcing longer shipping routes, increasing demand for air freight.
- U.S. tariff uncertainty causing hesitation in supply chain planning, affecting air cargo flows.
- Congestion in Heathrow airport due power outbreak
Impact on Freight Rates
- Air freight rates surged due to ocean shipping delays but are now fluctuating.
- If Red Sea routes reopen, air freight demand could drop, lowering rates.
- High-value industries (AI, semiconductors) continue relying on air freight.
- Air freight rates from the U.S. to Europe and Asia increased 4-11%
- Air freight rates from the U.S. to Latin America increased 15%-23%
Outlook
- Air freight rates will remain volatile as ocean conditions and trade policies shift.
- Businesses must balance cost, speed, and reliability when planning shipments.
- Diversification beyond China could create new air cargo lanes but will take time.
- Supply chain resilience is now a top priority, with many companies securing backup air freight options.
Bertling Shanghai secures IATA Certification
We are proud to announce that Bertling Logistics in Shanghai has achieved IATA (International Air Transport Association) certification, confirming our position as a key player in the global logistics and air freight industry.
The certification signifies our continuous efforts to enhance our air freight capabilities. As a member of IATA, we are better positioned to streamline our air freight operations, ensuring the highest standards of safety, security, and efficiency.
Read more about our air freight services.
Customer advice
Businesses that proactively adapt to shifting market conditions will be better positioned to navigate future uncertainties and maintain supply chain stability.
- Let's closely monitor the developments in the US trade policy and the impending world events to maneuver potential challenges effectively in the logistics industry.
- Think ahead and book well in advance. Try to plan for 6 months ++.
- Consider that the market can change significantly. Further disruptions can happen anytime.
- Identify contract options that enable flexibility and resilience for your business.
However, it is our job at Bertling to keep global supply moving and do all we can and apply our knowledge, network and expertise to protect our clients’ while taking the latest market developments into account. We are there to find the best solutions to ensure cargo flows.
